DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/03 11:47

   Traders Timid Following Wednesday's Aggressive Push in Livestock Complex

   Bids of $294 are currently being offered in Nebraska but still no cattle 
have sold.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Following Wednesday's aggressive technical surge, the livestock complex is 
trading fully lower into Thursday's noon hour as traders hope fundamental 
support rises and reassures them of yesterday's move. Still no cash cattle 
trade has developed, but bids are noted in Nebraska currently at $294. December 
corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.90. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 144.26 points.

   Beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous 
week and up 68% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were 
South Korea (7,900 mt), China (6,200 mt) and Mexico (2,800 mt). Pork net sales 
for 43,400 mt for 2024 were up 55% from the previous week and 61% from the 
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (24,000 mt), China 
(7,900 mt) and Canada (2,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as the 
market patiently waits to see what feedlot managers accomplish this week in the 
cash sector. After rallying the contracts aggressively through Wednesday's end, 
traders are scanning the market today desperately looking for fundamental 
support to reassure them of their move. But with midday boxed beef prices 
mixed, and no substantial cash cattle sales having developed yet, the market is 
quiet and mundane at this point. October live cattle are down $0.85 at $186.57, 
December live cattle are down $1.20 at $186.50 and February live cattle are 
down $0.92 at $187.47. Bids of $294 live are currently being offered in 
Nebraska, but otherwise, the cash market is sitting idle as feedlot managers 
wait for packers to get more aggressive. At this point, it's likely that the 
bulk of the week's trade could be delayed until Friday as packers and feedlot 
managers again go-rounds about what the week's trade should shake out to be.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.32 ($299.49) and select up $0.55 
($284.48) with a movement of 84 loads (44.72 loads of choice, 17.72 loads of 
select, 8.61 loads of trim and 13.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With the live cattle complex trading lower and the fed cash cattle market 
not having seen any trade yet, the feeder cattle market is trading moderately 
lower into Thursday's noon hour as the market waits to see if any support is 
going to surface. October feeders are down $1.57 at $248.15, November feeders 
are down $1.10 at $247.47 and January feeders are down $0.27 at $241.80. Also 
adding some technical pressure to the feeder cattle market is the fact that 
Wednesday's sharply higher jump put the spot November contract near the 
market's 100-day moving average which is a major resistance point for the 
complex.

LEAN HOGS:

   Following Wednesday's sharply higher close, the lean hog complex is trading 
slightly lower as traders look to the market's fundamentals to reassure them 
that Wednesday's move was merited. October lean hogs are down $0.65 at $84.02, 
December lean hogs are down $0.52 at $76.22 and February lean hogs are down 
$0.35 at $79.80. It is encouraging that pork exports were up 55% from the 
previous week and that morning pork cutout values are higher -- but with how 
aggressively traders ran Wednesday's market higher, they're slow to add any 
position to the market again today.

   The projected lean hog index for 10/2/2024 is up $0.45 at $84.90, and the 
actual index for 10/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $84.45. Hog prices are higher on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.38 with a weighted average price of 
$74.73, ranging from $73.00 to $76.50 on 665 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $77.09. Pork cutouts total 153.32 loads with 130.62 loads of pork 
cuts and 22.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.17, $95.19.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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