DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/20 10:57
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 7 to 9 cents higher, and wheat is
2 to 6 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140 points. The dollar index
is 34 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are mixed with
crude off $0.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are narrowly
mixed with gold up $0.30.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light two-sided trade seen
so far with spreads flat to soft. The export wire was quiet this morning.
Ethanol margins remain range bound with unleaded remaining at a discount to
ethanol with corn values continuing to limit upside. Basis will likely remain
solid with rains slowing harvest along with the upfront demand. Weekly crop
progress showing harvest at 60% vs. 43% on average. On the December contract
resistance is the fresh high at $4.08 with support the 20-day at $3.85.
Soybean trade are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying
again after early weakness, with spread trade flat to softer, with 132,000
metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown and rains in South America as planting
remains behind schedule. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 55 to 65
points higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range with planting
progress in Brazil likely to pick up, with Argentina still holding onto soybean
supplies as an inflation hedge. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to
max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels. Harvest
progress was at 75% vs. 58% on average. The November chart has resistance at
the fresh high at 10.79 3/4 with support the 20-day at 10.33.
Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents higher with broad strength holding as
Minneapolis trade leads, and Chicago spreads soften. The ruble action continues
to favor Russia a bit in the export markets but their domestic prices are now
elevated with growing winter kill concerns, along with too much rain in
Australia. KC is at a 63-cent discount to Chicago with spreads backing off the
recent highs, while Minneapolis is back to 54 cent discount with firmer action
and fresh highs scored before reversing yesterday. Rains look to be
concentrated to the eastern growing areas in the short term. Weekly crop
progress showed planting at 77% vs. 72% on average, and emergence at 51% vs.
48% on average. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at
$5.70 1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.22.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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